Recent observations have increased the estimated probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, to 3.1%. This asteroid, measuring between 130 and 300 feet in diameter, was first detected in December 2024. While the likelihood of impact remains low, continuous monitoring is essential to refine its trajectory and assess potential risks.
The European Space Agency (ESA) has assigned 2024 YR4 a Torino Scale rating of 3, indicating a potential threat that warrants attention from astronomers and the public. The asteroid’s size suggests that, if it were to collide with Earth, it could cause localized damage comparable to the Tunguska event of 1908, which flattened approximately 80 million trees over an 800-square-mile area in Siberia. However, experts emphasize that as more data is collected, the probability of impact is likely to decrease. Robert Massey, Deputy Executive Director of the Royal Astronomical Society, stated, “The odds are very, very low, and as observations get better, it’s very likely that the probability will drop to zero.”
To improve the accuracy of the asteroid’s projected path, NASA plans to utilize the James Webb Space Telescope for further observations in March 2025. These efforts aim to refine size estimates and trajectory predictions, potentially ruling out 2024 YR4 as an impact hazard. Ground-based telescopes will also continue monitoring the asteroid until it becomes too faint to observe in April 2025, with visibility expected to resume around June 2028.
In the event that the asteroid’s impact risk persists, planetary defense initiatives are being considered. One such measure is the kinetic impactor technique, successfully demonstrated by NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission in 2022, which altered the trajectory of a target asteroid. This method involves deploying a spacecraft to collide with the asteroid, thereby changing its course away from Earth.
While the current probability of impact is minimal, the situation underscores the importance of vigilant monitoring and preparedness. As additional data is gathered, scientists anticipate a more precise understanding of 2024 YR4’s trajectory, which will inform any necessary mitigation strategies to protect Earth from potential asteroid threats.
