A volcano in Alaska has a 50-50 chance of erupting, according to experts closely monitoring recent seismic activity. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) has raised concerns over a series of earthquakes and “volcanic unrest” at Mount Spurr, located near Anchorage.
In a report released on February 6, 2025, AVO indicated that new magma beneath the volcano is likely causing the ongoing activity, which has persisted for ten months.
Researchers warn that the duration and nature of this unrest suggest an eruption is possible. AVO stated, “We expect to see additional seismic activity, gas emissions, and surface heating, as well as changes to surface deformation prior to an eruption, if one were to occur. Such stronger unrest may provide days to a few weeks of additional warning, but that is not certain.”
Experts believe an eruption from Mount Spurr’s summit is less likely. Instead, if an eruption occurs, it will most likely be at the Crater Peak vent, a location on Mount Spurr that last erupted in 1953 and 1992. Two main scenarios are being considered: a failed eruption, in which magma is unable to reach the surface, or an eruption at Crater Peak, which could produce ash clouds traveling hundreds of miles.
Fortunately, the area surrounding Mount Spurr is uninhabitable, reducing the immediate risk to human life. While an eruption from the summit is unlikely, experts continue to monitor data and observations, warning that the current assessment may change.
Hawaii’s Mount Kilauea, the state’s most active volcano, is also showing signs of increased unrest, with the number of earthquakes at its summit doubling over, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).
Seismic activity at the summit has risen from 10 to 20 earthquakes per day, most occurring within the caldera, the volcano’s mouth, and its southern region. Most of these tremors registered below a magnitude of 2.1, according to the USGS.
The unrest extends to Kilauea’s rift zones. The upper Southwest Rift Zone recorded 25 minor earthquakes in the last two days, while the upper East Rift Zone experienced 25 to 60 daily quakes over the same period.
