On December 27, 2024, astronomers detected asteroid 2024 YR4 using an automated telescope in Chile. This near-Earth object, measuring between 130 and 330 feet in diameter, has garnered attention due to a calculated 1.3% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032.
The asteroid is currently classified as a level 3 threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which ranges from 0 (no risk) to 10 (certain global catastrophe). A level 3 designation indicates a close encounter with a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of causing localized destruction.
If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, the impact could produce blast damage extending up to 30 miles from the site, depending on the asteroid’s size and speed. However, experts emphasize that the probability of such an event remains low, with a 98.7% chance that the asteroid will pass by without incident.
In response to the potential threat, international space agencies, including NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), have activated global planetary defense protocols. The International Asteroid Warning Network is conducting further observations to refine the asteroid’s trajectory, while the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group is evaluating possible deflection strategies.
One potential mitigation approach involves deploying a spacecraft to alter the asteroid’s course, a technique successfully tested during NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission in 2022. In that mission, a spacecraft intentionally collided with the asteroid moonlet Dimorphos, demonstrating the feasibility of redirecting potentially hazardous objects.
As 2024 YR4 moves away from Earth, it will become increasingly difficult to observe. Astronomers plan to gather as much data as possible in the coming months to improve predictions of its future path. The asteroid is expected to remain out of view until it approaches again in 2028, providing another opportunity for observation and assessment.
While the current risk assessment does not warrant immediate concern, continuous monitoring and research are essential to ensure preparedness. Advancements in detection and deflection technologies contribute to global efforts to protect Earth from potential asteroid impacts.
