Tariff uncertainty for small businesses isn’t going away anytime soon, regardless of how the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately rules on President Donald Trump’s authority to impose import duties, a supply chain expert warns.
Tariffs have been a cornerstone of Trump’s second‑term economic strategy. Last April, he implemented a sweeping tariff regime that placed at least a 10 percent import tax on goods from virtually every major U.S. trading partner. Since then, the administration has repeatedly altered, suspended, or reimposed duties using authority derived from the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting legal challenges from states and private businesses.
Lower courts sided with challengers, and the Supreme Court agreed to fast‑track review of the litigation. But Matt Lekstutis, director at global supply chain consultancy Efficio, told The Center Square that the most likely outcome isn’t a wholesale overhaul of U.S. tariff policy. Instead, he expects the high court to issue a relatively narrow procedural ruling that clarifies the scope of presidential tariff authority without invalidating the duties themselves.
That means tariffs will likely remain in place — and with them, continued pressure on prices — even after the justices weigh in.
“Tariff uncertainty is here to stay, regardless of the ruling,” Lekstutis said, adding that most businesses have already adapted to volatility by diversifying supply chains and building contingency plans. He noted that geopolitical complexity has become a persistent factor shaping procurement strategies and that companies can no longer count on stable trade policy.
If the Supreme Court were to rule against Trump’s use of the 1977 law, unwinding the existing tariff regime could take months or even years. Lekstutis pointed out that the administration could shift to other statutory authorities to maintain duties, but those alternatives come with stricter limits and greater Congressional oversight, making them less flexible.
The expert also warned that dealing with refunds for tariffs already collected could add another layer of complexity and prolong uncertainty for importers.
Tariffs have drawn fire from businesses and consumer groups that say higher duties are contributing to rising costs for raw materials and finished goods. Trump, for his part, has previously suggested that a ruling against his tariff strategy could spell economic disaster.
As the Supreme Court prepares to weigh in, companies large and small are bracing for continued uncertainty in trade policy, with supply chains evolving to navigate a landscape where tariffs and geopolitical shifts are expected to remain key factors in global commerce.
