Media reports claimed that up to 15,000 transgender troops would be removed under President Trump’s 2025 policy. New data shows only four have actually been separated so far, despite wide-ranging speculation. The real total self-identified was about 1,404, with over 4,200 diagnosed with gender dysphoria, but the vast majority remain pending separation or still serve.
Analysis from the Defense Department and journalist Chris Bray confirms initial media projections were gross overestimates. The so-called “fearmongering” narrative by some outlets suggested mass removals, yet only a handful have been separated to date.
The DoD had estimated approximately 1,000 troops might voluntarily separate after identifying as having gender dysphoria, based on a total of 1,404 self-reported cases. As of now, only four service members have completed the separation process, with the remainder in administrative categories or pending.
Other previous estimates, notably from the Palm Center, suggested up to 15,000 transgender troops, but these relied on modeling and assumptions long before any official data emerged. The updated numbers—ranging from 1,400 to around 4,200 diagnosed cases across active-duty, guard, and reserve—are far more modest and verifiable.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s January 2025 executive order formally reinstated a ban on transgender service members, stating gender identity inconsistent with assigned sex undermines standards of discipline and mission focus. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s memo paused new accessions and medical transition procedures, citing the need to preserve a unified, merit-based force.
The U.S. Supreme Court granted the administration permission to enforce the ban while legal challenges progress. That ruling allows expulsion of transgender members pending litigation, potentially impacting more than 4,200 currently diagnosed personnel if policy continues to be applied broadly.
