A new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimates that 3.8 million undocumented immigrants could enter the US in fiscal year 2024, surpassing the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of 3.3 million total immigrants.
Recent declines in crossings, due to an executive order by President Biden that allows asylum applications to be rejected when daily crossings exceed 2,500, could lower these estimates.
The report found that recent spikes in illegal immigration contributed to approximately one-fifth of the decline in the job vacancies to unemployed individuals ratio. High migration levels are also reducing wage growth, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The Federal Reserve’s Evgeniya A. Duzhak noted that increased immigration has modestly eased labor market tightness. Florida, New York, Texas, and California saw the highest volume of immigration cases, while Louisiana, Massachusetts, Utah, and Colorado had the highest per capita, indicating significant labor market changes in these states.
