Goldman Sachs economists forecast the U.S. economy will grow faster in 2026, projecting about 2.6 % real GDP expansion, up from slower growth in 2025. They attribute this acceleration to a combination of lower tariff drag, significant tax cuts, and improved financial conditions, including expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
The firm noted that unusually high tariffs in 2025 weighed on growth more than expected, but if tariff levels remain stable, that headwind should fade next year. Additional fiscal stimulus from the tax changes enacted under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will put an estimated $100 billion back into consumer pockets through larger refunds and increased disposable income, boosting spending.
Goldman economists also see full expensing for business investments encouraging capital expenditure, while expanded investment in technology like artificial intelligence supports productivity. Despite these gains, they project the job market will remain weak, with unemployment possibly holding near 4.5 % in 2026 and no meaningful job growth expected.
Independent analyses highlight similar dynamics. Reuters reports that Trump-era tax cuts, easing trade uncertainty, and Fed rate reductions are expected to strengthen the economy next year, though labor markets remain a concern. The report also notes that a recent government shutdown and lingering inflation could dampen momentum heading into 2026.
Behind this forecast is a backdrop of actual economic strength in late 2025, with GDP growing 4.3 % in Q3, the fastest since 2023, driven by resilient consumer spending and exports. Still, inflation remains elevated and job gains have lagged, underscoring the uneven nature of the expansion.
White-collar optimism and market readings reflect confidence in continued expansion into 2026, but the labor market’s softness could temper broad benefits for American families.
