President-elect Donald Trump faces a critical geopolitical challenge: defending Taiwan’s independence against China’s growing aggression. The stakes extend far beyond Taiwan itself, as the island’s fate is tied directly to the future of American security, prosperity, and global influence.
Taiwan Essential
Taiwan sits at the heart of the Indo-Pacific, the world’s most economically consequential region. Assistant Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner aptly described it as a “critical node” in the network of U.S. allies and partners that includes Japan, the Philippines, and the South China Sea. Taiwan’s geographical location makes it an indispensable barrier against Chinese hegemony.
If Taiwan remains free, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will struggle to project power beyond its shores. However, should Beijing annex Taiwan, it could deploy submarines, air defense systems, and underwater surveillance platforms that would severely limit U.S. military operations in the region. A Chinese-controlled Taiwan would embolden Beijing’s bid for regional dominance.
Taiwan’s Unique History
Contrary to Beijing’s propaganda, Taiwan has never been an integral part of China. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials frequently claim that Taiwan has been part of China “since ancient times.” This is historically inaccurate. During the Ming dynasty, Taiwan was considered “beyond our territory,” allowing Dutch colonial forces to establish Fort Zealandia. Similarly, while the Qing dynasty declared Taiwan a province, this designation lasted only eight years before the island was ceded to Japan under the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki.
Even the CCP’s history complicates its claims. From 1928 to 1943, the party recognized Taiwan as a separate state. Today, the Taiwanese people overwhelmingly reject identification with China. In a recent Pew Research Center survey, 67% of Taiwanese identified as primarily Taiwanese, while only 3% identified as Chinese. Among younger generations, the distinction is even starker, with 83% of those aged 18 to 34 identifying as Taiwanese. This identity reflects Taiwan’s vibrant democracy and unique culture, forged in the crucible of Chiang Kai-shek’s brutal White Terror and decades of struggle for self-determination.
The Costs of Chinese Aggression
Beijing’s hostility toward Taiwan is not limited to historical rhetoric. China’s military intimidation includes frequent incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), large-scale military exercises, and the deployment of advanced weaponry aimed at coercing Taipei into submission. Economically, Beijing leverages its market power to punish countries and companies that recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty while diplomatically isolating Taipei from international organizations.
A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would have catastrophic consequences for the United States. First, it would destabilize global supply chains. Taiwan is the world’s leading manufacturer of semiconductors, the “brains” of modern technology. A Chinese-controlled Taiwan would hand Beijing control over a critical component of the global economy, threatening U.S. innovation and military readiness.
Second, it would undermine U.S. credibility with allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific. Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, among others, would question America’s commitment to their defense, potentially seeking accommodation with China. This would erode the regional security architecture and enable Beijing to dominate Asia’s trade routes and resources.
Finally, it would embolden authoritarian regimes worldwide. A successful Chinese assault on Taiwan would signal that aggression pays off, encouraging countries like Russia, Iran, and North Korea to pursue their revisionist agendas. The global order, already fragile, would descend into chaos.
Trump’s Role
To deter China and secure Taiwan’s future, Donald Trump must take a decisive stand. While war between the United States and China over Taiwan is neither imminent nor inevitable, ambiguity only heightens the risk of miscalculation. Trump should clearly articulate that the U.S. will defend Taiwan in the event of an unprovoked attack.
China’s leadership, though increasingly belligerent, remains casualty averse. The CCP’s reluctance to disclose losses from a skirmish with India in 2020 underscores its sensitivity to public opinion. If Trump leaves China guessing about U.S. intentions, Xi Jinping might gamble on an invasion, believing America would stay out of the fight. A clear commitment to Taiwan’s defense would make Beijing think twice.
Trump’s prior administration demonstrated a willingness to confront China economically, but Taiwan requires more than tariffs and trade wars. It demands robust military, economic, and diplomatic support. This includes:
Strengthening Military Deterrence
Trump should prioritize arms sales to Taiwan, ensuring the island’s military is well-equipped to resist invasion. This includes advanced fighter jets, anti-ship missiles, and cyber defense systems.
U.S. forces must increase joint exercises with Taiwanese counterparts to improve interoperability and signal readiness.
The U.S. Navy should maintain a strong presence in the Taiwan Strait to assert freedom of navigation.
Enhancing Economic Ties
Trump should push for a bilateral trade agreement with Taiwan, reducing dependence on Chinese markets and strengthening economic resilience.
Incentivizing U.S. companies to invest in Taiwanese infrastructure, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing, would bolster Taiwan’s economic security and benefit American industries.
Expanding Diplomatic Recognition
While formal recognition of Taiwan’s sovereignty might provoke Beijing, incremental steps—such as allowing Taiwanese officials greater access to U.S. institutions and international organizations—can chip away at China’s diplomatic stranglehold.
The Myth of Inevitability
Beijing’s propaganda often claims that Taiwan’s unification with China is inevitable. However, history and current trends suggest otherwise. Taiwan’s vibrant democracy, robust economy, and strong sense of identity make forced assimilation unlikely.
Moreover, China itself is weakening. The country faces a slowing economy, mounting debt, and demographic challenges undermining its long-term stability. Xi Jinping’s authoritarianism may consolidate power in the short term, but it risks alienating domestic and international stakeholders.
Conclusion
Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House is pivotal for Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific. Defending Taiwan’s independence is not merely a moral principle but a strategic imperative for America’s future.
A free Taiwan ensures the balance of power in Asia, protects critical global supply chains, and upholds the credibility of U.S. commitments to its allies. Conversely, a Chinese-controlled Taiwan would accelerate Beijing’s bid for global dominance, with devastating consequences for the United States and the world.
Trump must embrace this challenge with clarity and resolve. He can ensure that Taiwan remains a beacon of freedom in an increasingly authoritarian world by strengthening military deterrence, deepening economic ties, and expanding diplomatic recognition. The stakes could not be higher, and history will judge whether America rises to the occasion or falters in the face of tyranny.