Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is in a statistical dead heat with Democrat incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul in a potential 2026 gubernatorial matchup, according to a new poll obtained by the New York Post. The survey, conducted by co/efficient, shows Hochul at 43% support and Stefanik at 42%, with 15% of likely voters still undecided.
The poll underscores Hochul’s vulnerability heading into the next election cycle. Just 30% of voters approve of her performance, while 57% disapprove. Only 23% believe she deserves reelection, and nearly two-thirds want a new governor, highlighting deep dissatisfaction with Democratic leadership in the Empire State.
Stefanik, a strong ally of President Donald Trump, appears to be the frontrunner in a potential Republican primary. She commands 56% support among likely GOP voters, far outpacing Rep. Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who polled at just 9% and 8%, respectively.
A separate Siena College poll released earlier this week showed similar trends, with Stefanik leading the Republican field and drawing increasing attention as a formidable general election challenger. Trump himself holds a 44% favorability rating in the state, reflecting a growing Republican base dissatisfied with the status quo.
Though Stefanik has not formally announced a run, senior adviser Alex DeGrasse told Breitbart News that “if she decides to run,” she would dominate the primary and mount a serious challenge to Hochul in the general election.
Hochul’s campaign responded by labeling Stefanik an “extremist” and “Trump loyalist,” accusing her of threatening healthcare and other left-wing priorities. But with Hochul’s approval sinking and Stefanik’s popularity rising, New York may be on track for its most competitive governor’s race in decades.
