OPEC released its 2024 World Oil Outlook on Thursday, forecasting a 19 percent rise in global oil demand by 2050—driven by population growth, urbanization, and soaring power needs, particularly from AI and industrial expansion in developing nations. The group projects oil demand will increase from 103.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to 123 million bpd by 2050.
OPEC’s report points to a massive urban migration, with 1.9 billion people expected to move into cities over the next 25 years, dramatically increasing the need for fuel in transportation and infrastructure. Demand will rise particularly in Africa, the Middle East, and India—regions with fast-growing populations and aggressive industrial agendas.
The report attributes part of the future demand spike to President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, warning that the absence of climate regulations may lead to a global increase in hydrocarbon use. However, this view ignores the clear trend from developing nations during both the Trump and Biden administrations: a willingness to burn fossil fuels as needed to achieve economic goals, regardless of Western climate policy.
OPEC anticipates total global energy demand, including oil and other sources, to reach the equivalent of 378 million bpd by 2050. To meet that demand, oil-producing nations are being urged to ramp up production and storage, with the organization estimating $18.2 trillion in energy investment needed over the next 25 years.
Bloomberg News called OPEC’s forecast an “outlier” compared to other industry predictions. Companies like BP, Bank of America, and the International Energy Agency expect oil demand to plateau within the next decade as China’s growth slows and renewable energy expands. However, Bloomberg acknowledged that oil use has already outpaced earlier forecasts, and that the global transition to renewables has proven slower than expected.
While critics warn of environmental risks, OPEC’s share of the oil market is projected to rise to 52 percent by 2050, up from 48 percent today. That trend underscores the strategic advantage gained by nations that anticipate continued demand for fossil fuels rather than betting heavily on short-term green transitions.
