Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is preparing for a special leadership election in October following the resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru after less than a year in office. The race to replace him is expected to be highly competitive, with multiple party heavyweights and rising stars vying for the top job.
Among the top contenders is former economic minister Takaichi Sanae, a conservative veteran and close ally of the late Prime Minister Abe Shinzo. If elected, she would become Japan’s first female prime minister. Takaichi has called for revising the pacifist clauses in Japan’s constitution and restoring strength to the LDP’s conservative base.
Facing her is farm minister Koizumi Shinjiro, son of former Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro. At 44, Koizumi would be the youngest prime minister in modern Japanese history. Charismatic and reform-minded, Koizumi is seen as a symbol of generational change. However, his close ties to the outgoing Ishiba and role in encouraging leadership turnovers have raised concerns among some party members.
The LDP leadership is still deciding on the election format. A full-scale vote involving all party members could begin on September 22 and conclude by October 4. Party elites appear to have avoided an emergency election to maintain appearances of unity and respect toward Ishiba.
Former LDP secretary-general Motegi Toshimitsu, 69, has already declared his candidacy. A seasoned politician and former foreign minister, Motegi is seen as a steady hand who managed strong relations with President Donald Trump during his first term. He has been dubbed the “Trump Whisperer” for his diplomatic skill and may appeal to party elders seeking stability.
Other potential candidates include Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa, former economic minister Kobayashi Takayuki, and possibly candidates from Japan’s rising opposition parties. Hayashi, 64, has strong U.S. ties and could announce his candidacy soon. Kobayashi, 50, offers a youthful, reform-minded image similar to Koizumi but is seen as less politically aggressive.
While an opposition win remains unlikely, former Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and Democratic Party for the People (DPP) leader Tamaki Yuichiro are possible challengers. Tamaki, a populist with growing appeal among younger voters, is known for his fiery style and tax-cut promises. Sanseito party leader Kamiya Sohei, often compared to President Trump, could also play a spoiler role, drawing conservative votes away from LDP.
Japan is now on the verge of appointing its fourth prime minister in five years. With the LDP facing internal divisions and voter fatigue, the upcoming leadership contest may determine not just the party’s future, but whether Japan’s political right can stay in power through the rest of the decade.
