House Republicans are poised to start the new year with a razor-thin majority, potentially reduced to a single seat. This slim margin could complicate governance during the 119th Congress, especially as President-elect Donald Trump plans an ambitious agenda for his first 100 days in office.
California’s 13th Congressional District race between Republican Rep. John Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray remains unresolved, with Gray holding a lead of just a few hundred votes—approximately 0.1%. California law requires counties to certify election results by December 5. If Democrats flip the seat, Republicans would control 220 seats to Democrats’ 215, but GOP departures could narrow that further.
Three Republican lawmakers are leaving their seats to join the incoming administration:
- Matt Gaetz (R-FL) resigned from Congress to potentially become Trump’s Attorney General.
- Elise Stefanik (R-NY) was nominated as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.
- Mike Waltz (R-FL) will serve as National Security Adviser.
While their districts are reliably Republican, special elections to replace Gaetz and Waltz are scheduled for April 1, with Stefanik’s replacement yet to be determined. This means Republicans may govern with just a one-seat majority for much of the early months of 2025.
House GOP Whip Tom Emmer downplayed concerns, emphasizing the party’s ability to legislate effectively regardless of the exact majority. “Whether it’s 222, 225, or 218, as long as we have a majority, we can deliver with Donald J. Trump for the American people,” Emmer said during a recent FOX Business interview.
However, such a slim margin poses challenges for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). Over the past two years, similar conditions allowed intra-party disagreements to stall legislative action on key issues, including government funding. With an active presidential agenda ahead, managing these factions will be critical for Republican leadership to avoid gridlock.
