Ecuador’s presidential runoff election reaches a boiling point as incumbent Daniel Noboa and socialist challenger Luisa González concluded their campaigns Thursday with sharply contrasting rallies in Guayaquil. The Sunday vote will determine if Noboa, a 37-year-old political outsider, retains power or if Ecuador returns to the socialist policies of the Rafael Correa era.
This marks the second runoff battle between Noboa and González in less than a year. In October 2023, Noboa narrowly defeated González in a snap election, following the constitutional dissolution of both Ecuador’s executive and legislative branches under then-President Guillermo Lasso.
The latest polls show a razor-thin margin separating the candidates. One poll gives Noboa 50.3% of the vote, while another shows González at 50.2%. These results highlight deep polarization in a country grappling with surging crime, economic hardship, and political instability.
Noboa, who leads the National Democratic Action (ADN) party, held a final rally in Guayaquil, surrounded by allies and government officials. He delivered a short but forceful speech pledging to crush narcoterrorism and end the influence of criminal organizations and corrupt politicians. His rhetoric targeted González’s party, Citizens Revolution, and their ties to fugitive ex-president Rafael Correa, describing their socialist agenda as a “failed revolution.”
Noboa promised a platform based on justice, economic progress, and national dignity. He emphasized youth empowerment and reaffirmed his alignment with conservative international leaders, including President Donald Trump and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. Noboa met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago last week, seeking military support in combating drug cartels plaguing Ecuador.
González, meanwhile, ended her campaign in the same city, surrounded by heavy security. Her speech focused on women’s issues, particularly the plight of single mothers. She accused her opponents of launching personal attacks, referencing a claim from former Blackwater CEO Erik Prince suggesting she had a child with Correa—an allegation she strongly denied.
González appealed to female voters with promises of respect and dignity, vowing to create financial support programs, including up to $45,000 in credit lines for single mothers. Her party’s earlier plan to hold a caravan event was canceled over security concerns, a move highlighting the country’s escalating violence.
Ecuador enters a mandatory silence period before the vote, during which no political events, advertisements, or polling data can be shared. With both candidates virtually tied and the nation on edge, the outcome may not only determine Ecuador’s domestic policy direction but also signal broader regional trends in Latin America’s ideological battle between security-focused conservatism and socialist populism.
