Ted Cruz’s confirmed Democratic opponent for his Texas Senate seat in November may pose a significant challenge to the Republican.
Congressman Colin Allred secured victory in the Democratic primary for the Texas Senate seat on Tuesday, decisively defeating his closest rival, Texas state Sen. Roland Gutierrez, by more than 40 points (59 to 17 percent).
Although Cruz secured an easy win in his party’s primary on Tuesday, he is considered the frontrunner for reelection to the Senate in November’s election. However, some polls suggest that Allred will mount a formidable challenge, with at least two surveys indicating a neck-and-neck race.
Allred’s Senate campaign has also outpaced Cruz in fundraising, with the Democrat receiving millions more than the Republican incumbent in the previous two quarters. The current indicators suggest that the Texas Senate election could be another fiercely contested race, reminiscent of the 2018 showdown when Cruz narrowly defeated former Democratic Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke by just over 2.6 points.
A recent University of Texas at Tyler (UTT) survey found Cruz and Allred tied at 41 percent in a hypothetical face-off for the Senate seat. In February, a National Public Affairs poll of likely voters similarly showed the Republican and Allred tied at 44 percent. Following the poll’s publication, Cruz told Fox News that Democrats have made flipping his Senate seat their “number one target” leading up to November’s elections.
During his victory speech on Tuesday night, Allred suggested that “Cruz has had 12 years of pitting us against each other,” emphasizing the need for change in Texas. “It’s time we had a senator who will bring us together. I’ll be that senator,” Allred proclaimed. “We’ve had enough of me guys. We is much more powerful than me. We can do this together.”
While some polls and forecasts indicate that Cruz, benefiting from the incumbent’s advantage, holds a clear edge in the race, forecasters at Race to the White House give him nearly a 71 percent chance of winning November’s election, with Allred given a 29 percent chance.
In February, a Texas Politics Project poll showed Cruz leading Allred by 14 points (46 to 32 percent), with 13 percent undecided.
Allred also faces the formidable challenge of trying to become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the red state since 1988.
The outcome of the Texas Senate race could have significant implications for control of the upper chamber next year. Presently, Democrats hold a 51-49 seat majority in the Senate, including three Independents who caucus with them, after the GOP failed to achieve a “red wave” as predicted in the 2022 midterms.
