Consumer inflation expectations remained steady in November, while confidence in job security improved to its strongest level this year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations released Monday.
Median inflation expectations held firm at 3.2% for the one-year outlook and remained at 3.0% for both the three-year and five-year forecasts. These numbers suggest that Americans are not expecting prices to rise sharply in the near future, even as the Federal Reserve continues to hold interest rates at elevated levels.
The perceived likelihood of losing one’s job in the next 12 months dropped to 13.8%, marking the lowest level recorded in 2025. Expectations for future unemployment also improved modestly, with the average forecast for higher unemployment a year from now dipping to 42.1%.
The data reflects growing stability in inflation expectations and labor confidence, suggesting concerns over rising prices—such as those driven by tariffs—are receding. However, the picture is far from universally positive.
Household financial sentiment deteriorated notably. The share of Americans saying they are worse off than a year ago rose to 39%, the highest in two years, while fewer reported any improvement. Expectations for household finances in the year ahead also slipped, with fewer respondents anticipating better conditions.
Credit access concerns are also on the rise. Compared to a year ago, more Americans reported it has become harder to obtain credit. Looking ahead, fewer believe that borrowing conditions will ease over the next 12 months.
These growing strains come just as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week. The central bank has maintained a tight monetary stance, keeping rates high in an effort to control inflation—but it has also contributed to tighter credit and weaker consumer sentiment.
