As the 2024 campaign enters its final two weeks, the Pennsylvania Senate race has shifted to a “toss-up,” with Democratic Sen. Bob Casey facing off against Republican Dave McCormick, according to the Cook Political Report.
This change in the race dynamics comes after an Atlas Intel poll showed McCormick leading Casey by a single point. Over the past month, McCormick has narrowed the gap in the RealClearPolitics poll average, dropping from a five-point deficit at the end of September to just 1.9 points behind as of Monday afternoon.
The Pennsylvania contest marks the fourth Senate race categorized as a “toss-up,” joining Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin in that designation by the Cook Political Report. All these toss-up seats are currently held by Democrats, while Republicans are poised to gain seats in Montana and West Virginia. This would enable them to secure a 51-seat majority, provided they maintain their leads in other races deemed favorable.
For Democrats to retain control of the Senate, they must hold all the toss-up seats and aim for an upset in one of the races leaning toward or likely to be won by Republicans, such as those in Montana, Texas, or Florida.
McCormick remarked last week that his rising popularity is attributed to voters recognizing “that it’s between a seventh-generation Pennsylvanian, an outsider, a business guy, someone who went to West Point and served in combat, versus a guy who’s been in elected office for 30 years and has been weak in a 99% vote for these liberal policies. ‘The more they learn as voters, the better,’ he added.”
On the other side, incumbent Senator Casey has linked himself to former President Donald Trump in a recent campaign ad. Trump has recently taken the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania polling, a key battleground state for the upcoming election.
“Casey bucked Biden to protect fracking and he sided with Trump to end NAFTA and put tariffs on China to stop them from cheating,” the ad states.
