The legislative body of the state is in the process of approving new regulations on refineries proposed by the governor, while the California Air Resources Board, mostly composed of the governor’s appointees, is reviewing a measure that, according to their studies, might increase gas prices by an additional 47 cents per gallon. This measure could also affect Arizona and Nevada, which depend on California for their gasoline supply.
Governor Gavin Newsom of California seems to be orchestrating the regulation of gasoline through two avenues: the state legislature and the California Air Resources Board (CARB), which has 14 members with voting rights, 12 of whom are directly appointed by the governor without needing confirmation from the State Senate.
“In September of last year, CARB estimated that the change could lift gasoline prices 47 cents a gallon, or $6.4 billion a year,” the Los Angeles Times reported. “Other analysts put the price even higher — 65 cents a gallon, or $8.8 [billion] a year.”
The financial implications of the newly proposed refinery regulations — granting the state the authority to schedule refinery maintenance and repair shutdowns and to dictate the volume of gasoline inventory to be kept in preparation for potential shutdowns — remain uncertain. Nonetheless, the proposal has encountered opposition from a wide-ranging group including Republicans, Democrats, governors of neighboring states, and labor unions, signaling its potential passage.
A few labor groups, particularly those in the energy sector, have expressed their opposition to the bill, citing safety and electoral concerns.
“This issue is readily being used against our candidate in those states and beyond,” the coalition voiced, highlighting the immediate consequences for Arizona and Nevada, states dependent on California for gasoline, and the broader national implications of using California’s climate policies to challenge Democrats. “If we cannot be heard and believed on issues that could jeopardize the lives of our members, something is very wrong in CA. Every member who votes for this bill should be prepared to answer if something goes wrong”
Assemblymember Joe Patterson, R-Rocklin, mentioned his belief that the bill no longer has the support of most lawmakers, who feel pressured by the governor.
“The legislature honestly needs to stand up for itself and tell [Newsom] no. I’m guessing the vast majority of legislators want this bill to die,” Patterson stated on X. “We shouldn’t do it just because of the Governor’s strange obsession with this weird policy to give bureaucrats power over gasoline production.”
CARB is scheduled to vote on the new amendments to the state’s low carbon fuel standard on November 8, shortly after the presidential election, deciding whether to implement new, stricter standards that would complicate the generation of LCFS credits and necessitate the purchase of more credits.
CARB data reveals that the LCFS has already exceeded its 2026 carbon intensity reduction targets for the state’s fuel system by April 2024, the latest data point. Despite the reduction in emissions facilitated by the availability of LCFS credits, the rapid advancement of LCFS credit-generating technologies has diminished the value of individual credits.
The adoption of stricter LCFS criteria would disqualify many existing credits and drive up the cost of remaining credits, potentially rendering vast investments in the infrastructure for generating LCFS credits obsolete overnight.
California already has the highest gas taxes in the country, with combined federal, state, and local taxes and fees contributing roughly $1.62 per gallon, far surpassing the national average gas price difference. If the LCFS proposals are enacted, the cost of gasoline in California could be around $2.09 to $2.27 per gallon higher than the national average, prompting a shift towards electric vehicles or encouraging residents to move out of the state.