A new nationwide presidential election poll in Brazil suggests conservative candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is rapidly gaining ground against socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of the country’s 2026 election.
The survey, released this week by polling firm Datafolha and published by Folha de São Paulo, found that Bolsonaro has sharply reduced Lula’s lead, bringing the race close to the poll’s margin of error.
Bolsonaro, a senator from Rio de Janeiro and member of the Liberal Party, entered the 2026 presidential race in December after Brazil’s Supreme Federal Tribunal sentenced his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, to 27 years in prison on charges related to alleged crimes against democracy.
As part of the ruling, the elder Bolsonaro is also barred from holding public office until 2060. He remains imprisoned despite ongoing health issues, including cancer and digestive complications stemming from a 2018 assassination attempt in which he was stabbed during a campaign event.
According to the Datafolha poll, Lula would receive 38 percent support in the first round of voting, while Flavio Bolsonaro would come in second with 32 percent. Four additional candidates were included in the survey, with 11 percent of respondents saying they would not vote for any of them and another 3 percent saying they were undecided.
The result marks a significant improvement for Bolsonaro, who previously trailed Lula by roughly 15 percentage points in earlier polling.
Brazil’s presidential elections operate on a two-round system. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round, the two leading candidates advance to a runoff election.
In a potential second-round matchup, the Datafolha survey found Lula would still win but by a margin nearly within the poll’s error range. The incumbent received 46 percent support compared to 43 percent for Bolsonaro. The survey’s margin of error is two percentage points.
Previous polling from Datafolha in December showed Lula with a much larger advantage, leading Bolsonaro 51 percent to 36 percent in a hypothetical runoff.
Observers say the narrowing race may reflect consolidation among conservative voters. Early speculation suggested São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas could challenge Bolsonaro for leadership of the right-wing bloc. However, de Freitas publicly backed Bolsonaro’s candidacy, citing support from former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Brazilian outlet Gazeta do Povo noted that Lula’s Workers’ Party could face a much more difficult race if Lula himself were not on the ballot. Datafolha found that Bolsonaro would defeat Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, one of Lula’s closest allies and a potential successor candidate, in a head-to-head race.
Name recognition could also play a role in the election. Only about one percent of Brazilians reported not knowing who Lula is, compared to seven percent who said they were unfamiliar with Flavio Bolsonaro. Analysts say winning over a portion of those voters could narrow the gap further in a runoff scenario.
Other polling released this week has produced similar results. A Realtime/Bigdata survey conducted in São Paulo found Bolsonaro leading Lula by four percentage points in the country’s largest state.
Another poll conducted in January by Futura/Apex showed Bolsonaro defeating Lula in a runoff, 48 percent to 42 percent.
Bolsonaro announced his presidential bid in December, saying he intends to continue promoting conservative policies in Brazil while his father remains imprisoned.
“I cannot, and will not, resign myself to watching our country walk through a time of instability, insecurity, and discouragement,” Bolsonaro said in his announcement. “I will not stand idly by while I see the hope of families being extinguished and our democracy succumbing.”
Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a potential runoff to follow if no candidate secures a majority in the first round.
