Originally published October 16, 2023 7:23 am PDT
In light of mounting global tensions, a bipartisan panel established by Congress has advised that the U.S. should gear up for potential concurrent wars with both China and Russia.
These recommendations are grounded in the escalating tensions surrounding Taiwan and China, in conjunction with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The panel, titled the Strategic Posture Commission, has stated that a paradigm shift is necessary, moving away from the present U.S. security strategy which focuses on triumphing in one conflict while deterring another.
Such a change would necessitate a considerable increase in defense expenditure, the feasibility of which remains uncertain due to potential congressional opposition.
“We do recognize budget realities, but we also believe the nation must make these investments,” commented Madelyn Creedon, the Democratic chair and former deputy head of the agency supervising U.S. nuclear arms, alongside vice chair and retired Republican senator, Jon Kyl, in the introduction of the report.
With regard to the specifics of the challenges posed by China and Russia, an anonymous senior official associated with the report expressed concerns, stating, “We worry [that] there may be ultimate coordination between them in some way, which gets us to this two-war construct.”
In a briefing announcing the report, Kyl stressed on the importance of presenting a compelling case to the American citizens, highlighting that a potential increase in defense spending is a modest price “to hopefully preclude” a catastrophic nuclear conflict involving the trio of superpowers.
Interestingly, this position is at odds with that of President Joe Biden, who believes the existing U.S. nuclear capability is adequately poised to deter combined assaults from China and Russia.
The Arms Control Association, an advocacy group, mirrored this sentiment, noting that the arsenal’s constitution “still exceeds what is necessary to hold a sufficient number of adversary targets at risk so as to deter enemy nuclear attack.”
Highlighting the challenges posed by the aggressive stances of China and Russia, the Strategic Posture Commission emphasized, “The United States and its allies must be ready to deter and defeat both adversaries simultaneously.”
They further asserted that these threats to global democratic values and the established world order are spearheaded by the authoritarian regimes of China and Russia.
The commission was originally constituted in 2022, made up of equal representation from Democrats and Republicans, tasked with evaluating long-term threats and suggesting changes in the U.S.’s conventional and nuclear strategies, Reuters notes.
As per the report, the nation must act promptly to be prepared for imminent threats predicted between 2027 and 2035.
The commission has recognized and built upon a prior Pentagon projection, which anticipated that by 2035, China would expand its nuclear capabilities to encompass around 1,500 nuclear warheads.
This would position China as another primary nuclear opponent to the U.S.
The report underscored the critical nature of the 30-year U.S. nuclear arms modernization initiative, which commenced in 2010.
Previously estimated in 2017 to require a budget of approximately $400 billion by 2046, the project aims to update all nuclear warheads, delivery mechanisms, and related infrastructure in a timely fashion.
To reinforce the nation’s strategic position, the panel has further suggested the deployment of additional tactical nuclear armaments in Europe and Asia, the potential deployment of some or all U.S. reserve nuclear warheads, and the manufacturing of more B-21 stealth bombers and Columbia-class nuclear submarines.
Finally, to bolster the nation’s defensive capabilities, there was a call to enhance the “size, type, and posture” of conventional forces in the U.S. and among its allies.
Failure to implement these measures, as per the report, would compel the U.S. to heighten its dependence on nuclear weaponry.
Read the full report below:
