James Cameron’s latest sci-fi epic Avatar: Fire and Ash opened to just $12 million in Thursday night previews—underwhelming even by the already modest expectations set by its predecessors. That’s $5 million less than The Way of Water earned in 2022 previews, and far below the $40 million that Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker pulled in during the same pre-Christmas slot.
While Disney-aligned outlets like Deadline tried to spin the soft launch by blaming the proximity to Christmas, other films like Aquaman ($13.7M on December 20, 2018) and Rise of Skywalker prove that excuse doesn’t hold water. Another claim blames Avatar’s three-hour-plus runtime for the slow start, but The Way of Water was just as long and debuted stronger.
What really makes the spin laughable is the excuse that Avatar fans are too busy “finding the right showtimes and seats”—as if theater-goers in 2025 suddenly became less decisive than they were in 2022. The reality is, this franchise may be losing its grip on the public imagination.
Still, it’s too early to write off Fire and Ash completely. Cameron’s films are known for long legs at the box office, especially over the holidays when audiences flock to theaters over several weeks. But if it fails to surge during the Christmas break, there’ll be no scapegoats: not COVID, not streaming, and not runtime.
This is Cameron’s third strike to keep the Avatar magic alive—and this stumble out of the gate isn’t promising.
