A recent Morning Consult poll has sparked optimism among Democrats regarding their chances in the 2024 state elections. The poll, released on Monday, showed a close race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with Trump slightly ahead at 49% to Harris’s 47%. This poll surveyed 3,076 probable voters in Florida between August 30 and September 8, carrying a +/-2 percentage points margin of error.
Another poll conducted by The Hill and Emerson College highlighted a tight race in Florida, with Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell narrowly behind Senator Rick Scott by a margin of just one point. Conducted between September 3-5 with 815 likely voters, this poll’s margin of error stands at +/- 3.4 points.
Democrats are buoyed by potential ballot initiatives aimed at protecting abortion rights in the state constitution and the legalization of recreational cannabis, hoping these measures will increase voter turnout and secure victories.
Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party, expressed to The Hill, “It’s all the same story,” criticizing Republican policies for pushing the state into what she described as an extreme direction and causing widespread fatigue among voters. She believes this has contributed to growing support for Kamala Harris.
The Harris campaign is actively investing resources in Florida, leveraging the abortion ballot measure to bolster her support, as reported by The Hill. This effort was underscored by a visit from Doug Emhoff, the second gentleman, earlier in the week.
Notably, the last Democrat to win Florida was President Barack Obama in 2012. Since then, Republicans have maintained a strong hold on statewide offices, highlighted by Gov. Ron DeSantis’s significant re-election victory in 2022 by 18 points. Trump secured Florida by a three-point margin in the 2020 elections. Senator Scott narrowly won his Senate seat in 2018 by less than a percentage point and achieved victory in gubernatorial races by slim margins.
In response, Brian Hughes, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, declared to The Hill, “Floridians are lining up to reject the Biden-Harris agenda of higher costs, open border and violent crime,” asserting that Florida remains a stronghold for Trump.
