Arizona Democrats are pointing fingers at former President Donald Trump for rising costs in 2025, citing a congressional report showing that average household expenses increased by $1,569 in the state over the past year. But economic experts argue that much of the cost increase is simply routine inflation.
The report, released by congressional Democrats on the Joint Economic Committee, says housing, transportation, and food prices were all up in Arizona, contributing to the overall $1,569 hike in household costs. Nationwide, average costs rose by $1,625, according to the same study.
Arizona Democrats quickly seized on the numbers. Sen. Mark Kelly accused Trump of ignoring the affordability crisis and said his policies were driving up costs. Sen. Ruben Gallego said Arizonans are paying more and getting less. Rep. Greg Stanton blamed Trump’s tariffs for price hikes, while Rep. Yassamin Ansari and Rep. Adelita Grijalva echoed concerns about rising costs for essential goods and services.
However, economists like Zachary Milne of the Common Sense Institute Arizona caution against taking the numbers at face value. He said the report uses raw year-over-year changes, failing to factor in what he called “normal inflation” — the expected 2% annual increase in prices.
According to Milne, around 85% of the $1,569 increase in Arizona is due to routine inflation, not abnormal price hikes. By his calculations, only about $235 of that figure can be attributed to high inflation beyond historical norms.
Milne said the perception of unaffordability stems largely from extreme inflation during 2021 to 2023. In 2021 alone, consumers spent an extra $3,254 compared to 2020. By 2023, that figure ballooned to $14,682 more than in 2020 to buy the same basket of goods.
Today, with inflation hovering around 2.7%, Milne says the rate is returning to normal. But that doesn’t mean prices are going down. Once inflation spikes, it permanently raises the baseline for prices.
He also noted that returning to “normal” inflation levels won’t reverse the years of compounded cost increases Americans have already absorbed.
