Russian MiG‑31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace near Vaindloo Island in the Baltic Sea and remained inside for about 12 minutes, Estonian officials report. Although NATO‑deployed Italian F‑35s signaled the Russian aircraft to leave, radar and visual monitoring suggest the Russian pilots ignored the signals. The aircraft were flying without flight plans or active transponders at the time.
The incident marks the fourth such violation by Russian military aircraft in Estonia this year. Estonia immediately protested and is pushing for consultations under Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which allows alliance members to seek formal meetings when territorial integrity or political security is under threat. The Estonian Foreign Minister called the breach “unprecedentedly brazen.”
Russia denies that the jets violated any airspace. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the flight path remained over neutral waters of the Baltic Sea, and the planes were en route from Karelia to Kaliningrad. Estonia dismisses the claim, citing multiple radars and visual confirmation.
Italian F‑35s scrambled from NATO’s Baltic Air Policing force responded to the incursion, escorting the Russian jets out of Estonian airspace. While Estonia says there was no immediate threat, officials describe the event as a deliberate provocation. The episode, coupled with recent Russian drone incursions into Poland, stokes concern about escalating aerial provocations along NATO’s eastern flank.
Estonia’s Military Intelligence Center says it remains unclear whether the airspace violation was intentional, but the duration—12 minutes—and the fact that the Russian pilots ignored repeated signals suggest a calculated test of NATO’s response protocols. Some analysts believe such maneuvers serve multiple strategic purposes: gauging air defense reaction times, sowing uncertainty among allied nations, and projecting power in the Baltic region without triggering a full military response.
Meanwhile, NATO member states are watching closely. The Baltic nations have called for clearer rules of engagement and more robust rapid‑deployment plans in response to future violations. The incident also adds urgency to calls for increased funding for radar installations, air patrol readiness, and joint exercises among allies. Estonian leaders say these violations, taken together with cyberattacks and propaganda campaigns, form part of a broader hybrid strategy employed by Russia to undermine Western resolve without provoking open warfare.
