Economists from across the political spectrum are warning that President Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration restrictions could harm the U.S. economy if net migration turns negative in 2025. A joint report from the center-right American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and the center-left Brookings Institution projects that more people may leave the U.S. than enter, with “zero or net negative migration” considered the most likely outcome.
Factoring in Trump’s deportation push, tighter vetting for temporary visas, a suspended refugee program, and the termination of humanitarian parole programs, the report estimates the U.S. will see 2.47 million to 2.76 million fewer new arrivals than in 2024. It also expects 675,000 to over 1 million more immigrants to leave than last year, potentially reducing GDP growth by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points.
“Immigration has a net positive impact on our economy and our communities,” said Gbenga Ajilore, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, emphasizing that a shrinking labor force limits both job creation and economic activity. David Bier of the Cato Institute added that fewer workers also means fewer consumers, leading to a proportional reduction in jobs for U.S.-born citizens.
Economists warn the effects could extend beyond the labor market. UC Davis professor Giovanni Peri predicts higher prices for services reliant on immigrant labor and a loss of highly skilled workers. His analysis, co-authored with Georgetown professor Anna Maria Mayda, suggests GDP growth could fall by as much as 0.7%.
While some, like Daniel Costa of the Economic Policy Institute, doubt net migration will turn negative in 2025, they believe it could happen soon given the administration’s $170 billion boost for immigration enforcement. AEI and Brookings expect a modest recovery in migration starting in 2027, but Bier warns enforcement spending could drive an even sharper decline over the next four years.
