U.S. consumer confidence took a significant hit in April, falling to its lowest level in nearly four years. Concerns over trade policy, inflation, and market instability drove the drop, even as Americans maintained relatively strong views of their current financial situations.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 86.0, a 7.9-point decline from March and the lowest reading since May 2020. The Expectations Index, a forward-looking measure of consumer sentiment, plunged to 54.4—levels not seen since October 2011. This steep decline reflects growing skepticism about the direction of the U.S. economy, especially among households bracing for potential financial strain.
While the Present Situation Index remained nearly flat at 133.5, the significant drop in future outlook signals deeper public unease. Consumers appear more nervous about employment prospects and income expectations in the months ahead. The percentage of Americans who expect fewer jobs in the next six months jumped to 32.1 percent, the highest since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.
Despite the grim sentiment, the economic fundamentals remain stable. The unemployment rate is currently less than half the 8.7 percent recorded in March 2009. Job openings remain high, particularly in the private sector, where manufacturing has seen increased demand. Government-sector job postings declined, suggesting continued efforts under President Trump’s policy agenda to shift responsibilities from the public to the private sphere.
Inflationary concerns persist, though the pace of price increases has slowed compared to last year. Consumer worries about tariffs have reached an all-time high, especially as ongoing trade disputes create uncertainty around the cost of goods. Nonetheless, retail sales in March surged—the largest increase in over two years—indicating that consumers are still spending despite their anxiety.
The disconnect between current behavior and future expectations is not new. In 2020, during a period of economic rebound, consumer confidence lagged behind, reflecting psychological caution more than economic reality. April’s data points to a similar pattern, where fear of what may come is clouding an otherwise resilient labor and business environment.
Expectations about personal finances also turned more negative, with a growing number anticipating declining incomes. Still, most consumers continue to describe their current financial situation as favorable. Planned purchases of big-ticket items like electronics and appliances remain strong when measured over a six-month average, further suggesting that sentiment, not substance, is driving the confidence decline.
