California lost 156,300 jobs in the first half of 2024, according to the latest federal quarterly payroll data, contradicting Governor Gavin Newsom’s optimistic claims about job growth in the state. While Newsom’s office had highlighted preliminary job survey data, which often overestimates employment numbers, the finalized payroll data shows a starkly different picture. In January, California’s payroll data counted 18,037,900 jobs, but by June, that number had dropped to 17,881,600, reflecting a significant job loss.
Newsom had previously used preliminary data to announce that California had created over 672,000 jobs between January 2022 and June 2024. However, the final adjusted data reveals that the actual job growth during this period was just 499,600, about 172,000 fewer jobs than initially claimed. Much of the job recovery had been tied to the post-pandemic rebound, as the state’s economy had been hit hard by lockdowns, which lasted until early 2021 in many cities.
Economists have pointed out that the Current Employment Statistics Survey, which gathers preliminary data, has consistently overestimated job growth across the country. Jason Sorens, an economist at the American Institute for Economic Research, explained that these overestimates are a nationwide issue, not limited to California. The U.S. has seen significant discrepancies in jobs data, with some states showing particularly large errors, especially smaller states where job data is more volatile.
To address these issues, California’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office has announced it will use a hybrid measure combining business and household surveys to more accurately track job figures in the future, acknowledging that previous survey data had overestimated job growth by about 25,000 jobs each month since mid-2022.
