Political analyst Mark Halperin expressed skepticism on Tuesday regarding the likelihood of California Governor Gavin Newsom running for president in 2028, despite the governor’s rising popularity among Democratic voters. A recent Emerson College poll showed Newsom trailing only Vice President Kamala Harris, who leads the 2028 Democratic field with 37% support, while Newsom holds 7%.
However, Halperin raised doubts about Newsom’s ambition and the challenges he might face in mounting a successful campaign. Speaking on American Agenda, he suggested that while Newsom possesses qualities Democrats typically look for in a presidential candidate—such as the ability to present a strong challenge to President-elect Donald Trump—he might lack the personal drive required to pursue a national campaign.
“A lot of what Democrats want to see is someone who will be tough and take the fight directly to Donald Trump in a telegenic way… I think objectively he has some of those skills,” Halperin said. “But I continue to believe people overstate his willingness to make the personal sacrifices to run for president. And running for president from California is not easy. I think people are overstating the likelihood that he’ll be a major player in 2028.”
Halperin pointed to Newsom’s family life as a factor that might dampen his presidential ambitions. “He’s got young kids. He’s got a wife who, by all accounts, is not super enthusiastic about this. A lot of the governors talked about as potential 2028 candidates are more ambivalent. They don’t have the drive,” he added. “Most people I know who run for president wake up every day thinking about what they need to do to increase their chances of winning. I don’t get the sense that’s where Gavin Newsom’s head is at.”
Halperin’s remarks come amid ongoing speculation about the Democratic and Republican fields for the 2028 presidential race. On the GOP side, Halperin previously noted that Vice President-elect JD Vance’s ability to engage across multiple media platforms gives him a significant advantage in building relationships and consolidating support for a potential presidential run.
Meanwhile, former CNN political analyst Chris Cillizza also floated the idea of Donald Trump Jr. running for president in 2028, suggesting that Trump’s eldest son could inherit his father’s political movement. Cillizza pointed out Trump Jr.’s popularity with the MAGA base, his strong social media presence, and his familial connection to the former president as factors that could position him as a key contender.
“Trump will want to be in control of the handoff of Trumpism, and Donald Trump Jr. is someone who has shown he gets the MAGA base in a way very few Republicans do,” Cillizza explained. “I think you cannot rule out Don Jr. running in 2028.”
As speculation continues to swirl about potential 2028 contenders, Halperin’s comments add to the ongoing debate about who will emerge as the dominant figures in both parties. Whether Newsom, Vance, Trump Jr., or other figures will rise to the occasion remains to be seen.
